The External Sector - Mark Ellyne

The External Sector - Mark Ellyne

Macroeconomic Policy Analysis in Low Income Countries THE EXTERNAL SECTOR By Dr. Mark Ellyne The External Sector Goals: Understand the balance of payments accounts; How they reflect real and fiscal sector activities ,and Be able to forecast key elements of the BoP.

02/03/2020 2 What Does Openess Mean? Goods market Imports, exports and tariffs and quotas [(IM+X)/GDP] Capital market/mobility Capital controls affect purchase and sale of foreign assets Labour market/mobility Is there a common market? 3

I. Balance of payments conventions and relationships 4 Balance of Payments Accounts Current Account Capital & Financial Acct. Goods Imports (-) Exports (+)

Services Income Compensation of employees Investment income Current transfers Official Private 02/03/2020 Capital Account Capital transfers Acquisition/disposal of nonproduced nonfinancial assets Financial Account

Foreign direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment, net loans Trade credit Errors & omissions Change in Reserves Gold Foreign exchange IMF position Exceptional financing

5 BOP Accounting Conventions Transactions with non-residents (currency is not the issue) Accounting in foreign exchange (US$ or SDR) to avoid valuation issues Current vs Capital transactions Reserves flows are policy-related Accrual accounting, not cash 6 BOP Accounting Conventions Inflow of Forex (+)

Export Borrowing Debt forgiveness Reduction of reserves 02/03/2020 Outlfow of Forex (-)

Import Lending abroad Debt service Increase of reserves 7 BOP Flows Exports Imports $ $ Capital

Inflow Borrowing Repayment of debt Domestic economy Outward FDI & lending $ Foreign Reserves 8 CAB + CFA + Res = 0Res = 0

CAB + CFA = Overall Balance = NFANFA Overall Balance = NFARes = -NFANFA CAB = Current Account Balance CFA = Capital and Financial Account, excluding the NFAReserves. NFARes = Change in official reserves, where negative implies an increase (i.e., outflow of foreign exchange). NFARes = -NFANFA 9 External Debt & The Current Account CAB = -[CFA+Res] Most CFA flows are debt-creating flows. Even FDI may be though of as a foreign liability because it may be withdrawn at later data. The change in foreign reserves (a foreign

asset) also affects the net debt of the country. Thus: CAB Change in net external indebtedness 10 SA Current Account Balance B. Current account and trade balance % of GDP 6 4 % of GDP 6 Current account Trade balance

4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4

-6 -6 -8 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

-8 BOP Accounting Questions 1. How is foreign aid of free wheat accounted? 2. A company is creating an new oil field and sends in a drilling rig; how is it accounted? 3. What might large errors and omissions mean? 13 Foreign Reserves They are held as deposits offshore Reserves should be short-term liquid assets

NFARes = Change in official reserves Negative implies accumulation (i.e., outflow of foreign exchange) 14 Foreign Reserves and Money NFARes = Change in net foreign assets of the central bank (with opposite sign) If NFA (Reserves increase) => NFARes is negative The CB buys foreign exchange for local currency Then Ms 15 Foreign Reserves and

the Government Official foreign reserves are held by the Central Bank, not the government. What happens when government receives foreign loan? 16 National Accounting and BOP GDP = C + I +(X-IM)gnfs + Transfers + Factor Income GNDI = C + I + CAB 17 Meaning of S-I Balance (Y-CI) = CAB = -CFA

A CA deficit implies too much consumption and investment relative to GDP. A CA surplus implies too little consumption and investment relative to GDP. Within overall S-I balance, who is saving and investing: government or private sector? 02/03/2020 18 The Twin Deficits (S-I) can be divided into government and private components. Y - C I = CAB (Yg - Cg Ig) + (Yp - Cp Ip) = CAB Gov. bal. pvt. sec. bal.

Fiscal deficit & Current account deficit are often called the twin deficits 02/03/2020 19 CAB and Foreign Savings CAB = -(CFA+ NFARes) = - Sf The current account must be offset by an equal and opposite position in the CFA, which is foreign savings SN - I = CAB = -(CFA+ NFARes) = - Sf 02/03/2020 20

Why do Countries Have CA Surpluses and Deficits? Deficit o Excess consumption o Investment surge o FDI surge o Exchange rate overvaluation 02/03/2020 Surplus o Export boom o Commodity boom o Excess saving.

o Exchange rate undervaluation 21 Forecasting the BOP No-policy-change scenario, requires basic information and assumptions: The real exchange rate Domestic and foreign demand elasticities Price elasticity of imports and exports 02/03/2020 22

II. The Real Exchange Rate Dr.02/03/2020 M J Ellyne 23 RER Movement RER = NER(R/$)[Pusa/PSA] Is RER moving because of NER or relative prices? NER moves due to international supply/demand Relative prices move due to domestic factors XR measured in domestic/foreign currency; up=depreciation 02/03/2020

24 Discussion What happens to SA trade balance and foreign reserves if Price world price of gold rises sharply? Cost of mining gold goes up sharply? 02/03/2020 27 Does Depreciation Improve the CAB? Only if Marshal-Lerner Conditions Hold

For a real depreciation (RER/RER >0) to raise net exports, the sum of the export and import real exchange rate elasticities must be > 1. Deriving Marshall-Lerner Condition NX_R = +X_R IM_R*RER) In local currency: NX_R/RER = X_R/RER IM_R (RER in local/foreign cur = depreciation) Assume that NX_R = initially 0 and differentiate above expression [See Blanchard, Macroeconomics Ed 5, p 419] Marshall-Lerner Condition NX/NX =X_R/X_R - IM_R/IM_R - RER/RER) Quantity effect

- price effect Real net exports will only increase for a real depreciation (RER/RER > 0), if the quantity of exports increases enough and the quantity of imports decreases enough (quantity effect) to offset the increased price of imports and reduced revenue from exports (price effect). (depreciation = ) Elasticities Matter NX/X =X_R/X_R - IM_R/IM_R - RER/RER) NX/X = X/X IM/IM - 1 (%RER) (%RER) (%RER)

tbal = X - Im 1 If (long-run) exchange rate elasticity of the real trade balance > 0 export RER elast - import RER elast > 1 [note that import RER elasticity is negative] Marshall-Lerner Conditions NX/X = (%RER) X/X (%RER) - IM/IM - 1

(%RER) If depreciation (%RER>0) raises the TBal tbal = X - Im 1 > 0 [note that import RER elasticity is negative] Marshall-Lerner Example tbal = X - Im 1 > 0 Assume: Long-run X = 0.9 Long-run Im = -0.5 tbal = 0.9 (-0.5) 1 = 0.4 depreciation of 1% appears to raise the Tbal by 0.4% (but this also depends on export and import shares) [note that import RER elasticity is negative]

Timing and J-Curve Effect Because prices adjust faster than quantities, the immediate effect of a depreciation is usually a decrease in net exports (larger trade deficit). After people adjust to the new prices, the trade balance will get better if the Marshall-Lerner conditions are met. Net Exports Time Projecting the Exchange Rate In the absence of specific knowledge, we will assume a constant RER under a no-policy-change scenario. %NFARER = %NFANER - %NFARPI = 0

%NFANER = %NFARPI %NFANER = (%NFACPIcountry %NFACPIpartner) RER = Index, local/forex, increase is depreciation NER = Index, local/forex, increase is depreciation Relative Price Index = CPIcountry/CPIpartner Dr. M Ellyne Macro Policy Analysis 35 Projecting the Exchange Rate %NFARER = 0 %NFANER = %NFARPI = home partner The nominal rate moves by the inflation differential. RER = Index, local/forex, decrease is appreciation

NER = Index, local/forex, decrease is appreciation Relative Price Index = CPIcountry/CPIpartner Dr. M Ellyne Macro Policy Analysis 36 Forecasting the BOP Current account Trade Services Factor incomes Transfers Capital and Financial Account Foreign direct investment

Portfolio investment Other Long-term capital Disbursements Repayments Short-term capital 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 37 III. Projecting Current Account Components 02/03/2020

Dr. M J Ellyne 38 Trade Flow Projections If prices and quantities are known: Valuei = QiPi Xt = QXt*PXt IMt = QMt*PMt or by growth rate Mt/Mt-1 = [(1+%QMt)*(1+%PMt)] Mt = [(1+%QMt)*(1+%PMt)] Mt-1 Q growth P growth 02/03/2020

Dr. M J Ellyne 39 Simple Import Forecast Oil Imports in 2012=1000 R Growth in oil prices = 3% Change in quantity of oil imported=5% What are oil imports in 2013? 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 40

Need Quantity and Price Effect Import value = import quantity demanded times import price IM = IM_R*PM or (1+%IM) = (1+%IM_R) + (1+%PM) Dr. M Ellyne Macro Policy Analysis 41 Quantity Estimation Import quantity demanded = F{domestic demand, relative price} IM_R = F{+Y, -RER} = F{+demand, substitution} log(IM_R) = + 1log(Y)-2log(RER)

RER = Pf/Pd Dr. M Ellyne Macro Policy Analysis 42 Elasticity Approach Estimate elasticities from past: Demand elasticity: 1 = eY = %NFAIM_R/%NFAGDP_R or 1 Price elasticity 2 = eeP = %NFAIM_R/%NFAREER<< 1 02/03/2020 43 Price Elasticity

Generally, most imports/exports are relatively price inelastic in very short run (.1 to .3, negative for imports) However, in the longer term (>4 quarters) can assume that sum of import and export price elasticities 1. (Meets Marshall-Lerner Conditions) 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 44 The Elasticity Approach Volt= (1+eY *%DDemand)(1+eP*%DRel price)*Volt-1 Quantity

or Income Effect Price or Substitution Effect Quantity effect = (1 + eY*%DGDP_R) Rel. Price effect = (1 + eP*(%DREER) But we assumed DREER=0 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 45 Import Values

Value=Quantity*Price IM = IM_R*PM or IMt = (1+%DIM_R)(1+%DPM)*IMt-1 =(1+ eeY %DGDP_R)(1+%DPM)*IMt-1 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 46 Import Share of GDP IMt /GDP = (1+%DIM_R)(1+%DPM)*IMt-1 GDP (nominal)

02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 47 Import Share of GNI Nominal - SA IM_GENI .40 .36 .32 .28 .24 .20 .16 90

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

10 12 14 48 Estimate Quantity Elasticity - SA Dependent Variable: LOG(QM) Method: Least Squares Date: 08/10/15 Time: 10:17 Sample: 1970 2014 Included observations: 45 Variable

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C LOG(GNI_R) -16.55705 1.429519 1.224903 0.085697

-13.51703 16.68117 0.0000 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.866153 0.863040 0.183608

1.449614 13.44348 278.2614 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat 3.870667 0.496129 -0.508599 -0.428303 -0.478666

0.188842 49 Historical Decomposition Historically, we examine the change in value and in price for a category of imports or exports: %Vol = (1+%Value)/(1+%Price)-1 then calculate: Demand Elasticity = %Vol/%RGDP 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 50

Forecasting ImportsAssumptions %NFAM = + 0 *%NFA(GDP_R) Domestic demand + 1*%NFAPMt Import Price - 2*%NFARERt Competitiveness Estimate s or Assume: 0 1 1 = 1 2 doesnt matter 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 51

Historical Decomposition to Estimate Demand Elasticity 1. Value of Imports (kwacha) %Change value imports 2. % change in Import price ( or Parnter's 3. export prices) %change volume imports = 4. (1+%IM)/(1+%PM) GDP_R growth (%) 5 Elasticity of QM to GDP_R = 6. %QM/%GDP_R 2011

2012 2013 -6,454.0 37.0% -7,926.0 22.8% -9,195.0 16.0% 1.5% -2.2%

-0.9% 35.0% 25.6% 17.1% 6.3% 6.7% 6.7% 5.521

3.802 2.541 52 Forecast of Imports 1. Value of Imports (kwacha) %Change value imports 2. % change in Import price ( or Parnter's 3. export prices) %change volume imports = 4. (1+%IM)/(1+%PM) GDP_R growth (%) 5

Elasticity of QM to GDP_R = 6. %QM/%GDP_R 2011 2012 2013 2014 -6,454.0 37.0% -7,926.0 22.8%

-9,195.0 16.0% -10,005 8.8% 1.5% -2.2% -0.9% -4.3% 35.0% 25.6%

17.1% 13.7% 6.3% 6.7% 6.7% 6.4% 5.521 3.802

2.541 2.141 53 Import Components If appropriate, break down imports into 2 or 3 main categories, and forecast each component separately: Oil and raw materials Consumer goods link to Consumption Capital goods link to Investment 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne

54 Export Function X_R = f (+Yf; REER, capacity) Demand, Substitution, where: e REER in dom/for currency e Yf foreign demand 02/03/2020

Dr. M J Ellyne 55 Export Demand Elasticity Export demand elasticities: e = %NFAX/%NFAGDP_Rf ePX = %NFAX/%NFAREER Y Assume high demand elasticity (around 1) Substitution effect=0 for constant REER 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne

56 Export Value Value=Quantity*Price X = X_R*PX or Xt = (1+%DX_R)(1+%DPX)*Xt-1 = (1+ eeY %DGDP_Rf)(1+%DPX)*Xt-1 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 57 Export Forecast Using Elasticities

%NFAX = + 0*%NFA(foreign demand) + 1*%NFAPworldt + 2*%NFARERt Demand World Price Competitiveness Where 0 =eY 1; 1 =ep 1 , %NFARERt = 0 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 58

Trade Balance Xt = X_Rt*PXt IMt = IM_Rt*PMt Trade Bal = Xt - IMt 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 59 Imports and Exports of Services 1. Assume they grow at same rate as exports or imports of goods; or 2. Estimate elasticity of services to exports/imports of goods and apply

to export growth = %Xservices/%Xgoods 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 60 Foreign Grants Public (foreign aid) and Private (NGOs) Assumptions lacking specific information: Foreign Grants to Government = Constant or declining share of GDP; same amount shown in budget Private transfers = Constant or declining share of GDP

02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 61 Interest Income To calculate interest paid, we need to know the future stock of debt. Similarly, to calculate interest received, we need to know the future stock of foreign reserves. First we must complete the capital account. 02/03/2020

Dr. M J Ellyne 62 Wage Remittances Assume they grow at same rate as foreign growth (in dollar terms): Wt+1 = Wt (1+%Yf) 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 63 End of Lecture 4

64 IV. Forecasting the Capital Account Capital & Financial Acct. Capital Account Capital grants Financial Account Foreign direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment, net Loan disbursement -Amortization Trade credit, net Errors & omissions Change in Reserves Foreign exchange

IMF position 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 65 Capital Grants These are largely project grants to government Function of domestic demand as well as foreign ability to pay. See if Capital Grants/GDP$ is predictable 02/03/2020

Dr. M J Ellyne 66 Foreign Direct Investment: Assume to be stable share of GDP unless other specific information Work on net FDI, assuming that outward FDI is small 67 Portfolio Investment Only significant in emerging markets and a few others (Zambia) Can base projection on share of GDP Keep in mind if there is a change in the real

interest rate differential: NFA[rsa-rus] = NFA(isa-sa)- NFA(ius-us) = NFA(isa-ius) + NFA(us-sa) What is the impact of a positive change in the real interest rate? 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 68 L-T Loan Disbursements Assumption: Government has target level of public capital investment, part of which is financed externally and remainder is borrowed domestically. Can assume

foreign share is a constant or declining share of GDP. Private loans: Project as share of GDP; but may be zero for LICs 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 69 Amortization Base the future amortization rate (a)on the past amortization rates, a = Amortt-1/Debtt-1; or Assume 20 year amortization rate

Amortt+1 = .05 Debtt 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 70 External Debt Stock Must keep track of stock of debt (at end of period): Dt+1= Dt +Disbursementt+1 - Amortt+1 Forgivenesst+1 Calculate Dt+1/GDPt+1 ratio Dr. M Ellyne Macro Policy Analysis

71 Amortization Exercise? If stock of debt is $1800 in 2012 and average maturity is 20 years, how much will be repaid in 2013? If government borrows $100 in 2013, what is new stock of debt at end2013? =1800 1800/20 + 100 = 1810 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 72 Interest on Government Debt Calculate the average interest rate on

government debt or use libor+.5% it-1$avg = Interestt-1/ExDebtt-2 Apply last periods interest rate to debt this period Interest costt+1 = i$avg*Debtt 02/03/2020 73 Interest Exercise If stock of debt is $1800 in 2012 average maturity is 20 years, government borrows $100 in 2013, and current US$ libor is 1%. How much interest will be paid in 2013?

02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 74 Other S-T Capital Other S-T private flows are generally due to banking flows and trade credits and might be thought of as working capital. Thus, one strategy is to keep them as constant share of $GDP or exports/imports They are very difficult to predict. 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne

75 Errors & Omissions This is the balancing item for historical data after all data are recorded. There is no future E&O If E&O is consistent, then consider putting some projected amount in S-T capital flow for future. 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 76

Change in Foreign Reserves The change in foreign reserves is equal to the negative of the overall balance. IMF disbursements and repayments are part of Change in Reserves, ie IMF finances part of BOP deficit Determine if there is any trend in the overall balance. 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 77 Stock of Foreign Reserves Foreign $Reservest+1

= Foreign Reservest + Change in Reservest+1 Calculate Import Cover in months = Foreign Reserves/(Imports/12) 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 78 Foreign Reserves If foreign reserves at end-2012 are US$825 million and the overall BOP balance is US$125 million in 2013, what is the level of foreign reserves at end2013? What impact does this have on the money

supply? 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 79 Interest Income Interest earned on foreign reserves: = i$libor*Foreign Reservest-1 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne

80 Change in Foreign Reserves The future trend in the level of foreign reserves indicates potential problems with the no-policy-change scenario. What is the meaning of declining/rising reserves in months of imports? 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 81 Implications of Projected BOP Severely declining reserves probably

indicates a need for real exchange rate depreciation or for greater government foreign borrowing or foreign aid. Strongly rising reserves would indicate a needed appreciation of the RER. 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 82 Is the BOP Sustainable? Can the current account be sustainably financed by the capital account? Are foreign reserves (stock) in months of imports gnfs is at least 3 months

Is Debt/GDP stable and <50% Is Debt service/exports is stable or falling 02/03/2020 Dr. M J Ellyne 83 Trade Policies Export-led growth - Characteristic of many successful emerging markets. Includes increased quantities and diversification. Import substitution vs export promotion. Use of high tariffs and/or quantitative restrictions to protect domestic industries. Tariff Policy

What is impact on competitiveness (cost)? 84 Protectionist Arguments Cheap labor abroad makes us uncompetitive. High tariffs preserve employment. Restricting imports can reduce prices. Domestic protection keeps money at home. Countries need to protect infant industries. 85 Can Protectionist Policies Work Yes, if Protected industry has the ability to be

competitive globally, Protected industry aids vertical integration Protection does not hurt export competitiveness 86 Potential Problems with Import Substitution Goals of Protection Protect jobs Raise fiscal revenue Frequent Results Raises price level of goods Overvalues exchange rate IM-subtitution industries drain resources from export industries

Exports may become less competitive 87 What You Should Know Structure of balance of payments accounting Linkage to real sector Be able to project the BoP accounts And diagnose BOP problems 88 The Global Imbalances Issue The exchange rate should adjust to ensure the tendency toward current account balance, so countrys current account balance cycles around 0 for stability.

Sustained deficits (or surpluses) for long periods indicate some other serious structural problem. 2012/16/27 89 Persistent Current Account Surpluses And Deficits are a Problem 2012/16/27 90 Implications of Current Account Balance

Current account Deficit capital account borrower, or debtor (and vice versa: Surplus Creditor) Deficit Currency depreciates [Surplus Currency appreciates] But what about China and USA? 2012/16/27 91 China - USA Symbiosis China has large surpluses so its currency should appreciate China loans USA large amounts of money (by buying US government treasury bills) to continue trade imbalance without adjusting

And, Chinas exchange rate is fixed to US$ 2012/16/27 92 Is China Adjusting US$ bn China: Foreign Reserves 3,500 Res/GDP 0.60 3,000

0.50 2,500 0.40 2,000 Reserves/GDP (left) 1,500 1,000 0.30

$ Reserves (right) 0.20 0.10 500 0 0.00 1 6 2012/16/27

11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51

56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91

96 101 106 111 116 121 126 93 Is China Adjusting? US$/Yuan 0.80 China: Exchange Rate, US$/Yuan (Down=Depreciation) 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30

0.20 0.10 0.00 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 80 81 8 2 83 85 86 87 88 9 0 91 92 9 3 95 9 6 9 7 98 0 0 01 02 0 3 05 06 0 7 08 10 1 1 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2012/16/27 94 Is China Helping or Hurting Us? Persistent large surplus exports are too cheap? Who receives the benefits?

2012/16/27 95

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