Military Decision-Making Process and Effect-Based Operations Concepts: A Comparative Study, Lessons Learned and Implications Dr. A. Guitouni Decision Support System Section, Defence R&D Canada - Valcartier 2459 Pie-XI North, Val-Belair, QC, G3J 1X5, Canada Phone: +1 (418) 844 4000 ext. 4392, Fax: +1 (418) 844 4538, Email: [email protected] Defence Research and Development Canada Recherche et dveloppement pour la dfense Canada Dr. K. Wheaton Defence R&D Canada Centre for Operational Research and Analysis Department of National Defence, National Defence Headquarters Major-General George R. Pearkes Building, 101 Colonel By Drive Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0K2, Canada Phone: +1 (613) 996-6511, Fax: +1 (613) 992-3342, Email: [email protected] Canada Agenda Introduction Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP) Effect Based Approach (EBA) Comparative Study Lessons Learned and Implications Concluding remarks Defence R&D Canada Valcartier
R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Motivation New concepts trigger one of the three reactions: Enthusiasm and support Scepticism and opposition Neutral and no interest Innovation, Evolution and Revolution Do EBO is an innovation, evolution or a revolution? What is wrong? and what is the cause? What is the best, affordable, feasible and practical solution? Need to bridge between theoretical development and practice Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier C4ISR Target Integration Model* Produce * Capt(N) Knight ISR Fusion Capability Virtual Knowledge Base Orient Global and Operational Data COP
Decision Analyze TPED Direct Decide Direct - Decide TPPU Observe Support Collate Act CFCS Information Grid Defence Collaborative Information Environment R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Security Layer Access Control Dissemination Layer Intelligence Cycle COMMANDERS MISSION Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier
Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine Intelligence Preparedness of the Battlespace IPB is the analytical process used by intelligence organizations to produce intelligence assessments, estimates, and other intelligence products in support of the Commanders decision-making process. IPB Focus: Battlespace effects and enemy capability Predictive intelligence to discern enemy intent and likely COA Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine Intelligence Preparedness of the Battlespace Define the battlespace environment Describe the battlespaces effects Evaluate the adversary Determine adversary courses of action Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine Operations Planning Process
A methodical thought process designed to Focus the Staff, Serve the Commander and Provide the Necessary Products to direct the joint force. Steps: Initiation Orientation COA Development Plan Development Plan Review Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine Concepts Operational Art: Art of translating strategic objectives into operational design to link strategy to tactics. Operational Design: Massing joint effects to attack the enemys centre of gravity while protecting ones own. Centre of Gravity: determined, not chosen
Decisive Points: determined, not chosen Strengths & Weaknesses: friend and foe Factors: Significant aspects of time, space & environment Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine OPP Lexicon Centre of Gravity is a characteristic, capability or locality from which a military force, nation or alliance derives: freedom of action, strength or will Decisive Point is a point from which a hostile or friendly Centre of Gravity can be threatened. This point may exist in time, space, or in information environment. Decisive points are often effects Or a condition that must be achieved to expose the enemys Centre of Gravity Critical Vulnerability is a characteristic or key element of a force that if destroyed, captured or neutralised will
significantly undermine the fighting capability of the force and its centre of gravity. May be a strength or a weakness. Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine OPP Concepts Centre of Gravity Critical Capabilities Critical Requirements Critical Vulnerabilities Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Adapted from LCol Scheidl Brief DECISIVE POINTS DP DP DP
CG OBJ CG ATTACK DP DEFEND DP Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine Initiation Trigger (e.g., Tasks, Political Directives, ID) Orientation Initial WOs Staff Orientation Develop Initial Own COAs Initial Staff Checks Outline
COAs Decision COA Development Plan Development and Review CF Decision Making Process Battlespace Effects Air Avenue of Approach Overlay TERA Weather Effects Overlay Information Brief Refine Staff Checks AI Initial PIRs CCIR CPG Initial Supp. Plan
Existing Information Collection Plan Define Battlespace Mission Analysis Refine Own COAs Light Tables Threat Evaluation Refined COAs Supp. Plan Initial HVTL COAs Analysis/WG Draft Synchronization Matrix & DST ECOAs Templates ECoG
Determine ECOAs Event Matrix Draft ISTAR Plan Event Templates Updated HVTL COAs Comparison Decision Brief Selected COA Supplementary WOs Plan Development Updated Information Collection Plan Detailed OPlan Plan
Review/WG Refined OPlan and Supporting Plans DST DefenceIssue R&D Canada Valcartier of AGM Synchronization Matrix Information Collection Plan R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Legend Orders Op Orders ISTAR Plan OPP IBP Other Processes
Staff Activities Commander Activities Initiation Trigger (e.g., Tasks, Political Directives, ID) Orient Orientation Define Battlespace Mission Analysis Staff Orientation Develop Initial Own COAs Initial Staff Checks Initial Supp. Plan Outline COAs COA Development
Refine Staff Checks Decision Plan Development and Review Refine Own COAs Analyze Refined COAs Initial HVTL COAs Analysis/WG TPPU Air Avenue of Approach Overlay Weather Effects Overlay Supp. Plan Decide Battlespace Effects TERA
Information Brief CF Decision Making Process Existing Information Collection Plan AI Initial PIRs CCIR CPG Initial WOs Produce Draft Synchronization Matrix & DST Observe Threat Evaluation Direct TPED ECOAs Templates
ECoG Determine ECOAs Event Matrix Draft ISTAR Plan Event Templates Updated HVTL COAs Comparison Decision Brief Light Tables Selected COA Supplementary WOs Collate Plan Development
Updated Information Collection Plan Detailed OPlan Plan Review/WG Act Refined OPlan and Supporting Plans DST DefenceIssue R&D Canada Valcartier of AGM Synchronization Matrix Information Collection Plan R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Legend Orders
Op Orders ISTAR Plan OPP IBP Other Processes Staff Activities Commander Activities Effects Based Operations Lexicon* An effect is the physical, functional, or psychological outcome, event, or consequence that results from specific military or non-military actions. It should be achievable, and measurable. A state is a set of conditions of the system. A state could be stable or instable and have the properties of being desirable or undesirable. An End State is a set of desired conditions beyond which will achieve strategic objectives. Objective is the intended state of affairs to be achieved by the aggregation of specified Effect(s).
Strategic aim is a single, unambiguous purpose attained by the achievement of one or more objectives. A Decisive Effect is an effect that will either achieve an end state or complete a phase in a military operation. Second and Third Order Effects are the tightly inter-linked flow-on outcomes from actions, or 1st order effects, which magnify the impact of the original action and are aimed at influencing the will of an individual or organisation. Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier *: United States Department of Defence, Joint Forces Command Glossary, and other Effects Based Operations Lexicon* An Enabling Effect is an effect that adds to the system of effects designed to produce a decisive effect. Effector is a capability, a person or an organisation that could carry an action that might result in an effect. Constant Engagement is the concept of standing, continuous
engagement with friendly, neutral and potential adversary agencies to facilitate shared situational awareness and support integrated planning to achieve national policy goals. System - Any organized assembly of resources and procedures united and regulated by interaction or interdependence to accomplish a set of specific functions. System of Systems - A grouping of organized assemblies of resources, methods, and procedures regulated by interaction or interdependence to accomplish a set of specific functions. For example, a "system of systems" could include the economic entities in a nation such as the banking system, production system, etc. Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier *: United States Department of Defence, Joint Forces Command Glossary, and other Effects Based Operations Lexicon* Operational assessment is best defined as the art and science of enhancing the operational commanders judgment and decisions about the military campaigns effectiveness and attendant risk in progressing toward the military end state. A node is an entity in the Network system that performs one or more basic net centric actions and is able to interact with other nodes in
the system. Node a person, place, or thing that is a fundamental component of a system. A node could be a collector, information provider, decider, effector, communicator or supporter. An action is an activity directed towards the achievement of an effect or effects directed at a specific node [for the purpose of achieving an effect]. Actions have the properties of being direct or indirect. Resources are the forces, material and other assets which can be employed to conduct an action. Task one or more actions [assigned to an organization]. Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier *: United States Department of Defence, Joint Forces Command Glossary, and other Effects Based Operations CA* Operations designed to influence the long - or short-term state of a system through the achievement of desired physical or psychological effects. Operational objectives are sought to achieve directed policy aims using the integrated application of all applicable instruments of hard/soft power. Desired effects, and the actions required to achieve them, are concurrently and adaptively planned, executed, assessed (and potentially altered) within a complex and adaptive system CA working definition Defence R&D Canada Valcartier
R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier * Grossman-Vermaas, R.., EBO Concept Development and Experimentation Initiatives, 2005. Effects Based Operations The application of military and non-military capabilities to realise specific and desired strategic and operational outcomes in peace, tension, conflict and post-conflict situations. The intent of EBO is to produce effects - not just to conduct an action in isolation - and the planning, conduct and assessment of operations must reflect this approach. EBO focuses on military operations but also supports Whole of Nation planning. Employing this approach, requires inter-dependencies with other government agencies, allies and coalition partners, neutral third parties and other nations. This is not a new approach; however, EBO seeks to more effectively coordinate military effects with the various elements of power in achieving objectives. Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier EBO Concept Assumption: National Power Integration (DIME) Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier
EBO Concept Assumption: National Power Integration A broader view of conflict is a central theme of EBO: It incorporates knowledge of not just an adversary, but OGDs, own and allied forces, as well as neutral elements such as nongovernment organisations. It exploits this knowledge to generate the broadest range of effects which support the eventual achievement of the national goal. EBO seeks to identify the 2nd, 3rd, order effects of applying national power. For EBO to work, all of the constituent elements of national power must employ an effects-based holistic thinking to synchronise actions. As one of the principle elements of national power, the military will have a major role in achieving national security objectives. Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier MNE 3 EBP Process Steps Effect-based Planning Strategic Aim
9 CEA 10 11 12 ETO 13 R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Commanders Decision Defence R&D Canada Valcartier 8 PEL Focused ONA Baseline ONA 7 Actions Operational Net Assessment (ONA) Academia Natl and Intl Intelligence Vulnerabilities
Political Social and Cultural Economic Dependencies Physical Defence NODES Strengths Policy Centres OGDs, IGOs Private Industry Legal, Ethical and Moral Weaknesses Scientific and Technical Relationships Military System Understanding Defence R&D Canada Valcartier
R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier EBP Process: MNE 4 Conops Ver 0.65 Red / Green Teaming Gain SA/SU Effects Development End state Analysis Action Devel. Resource Match Effects-Based Assessment Planning Information Political Military Synchronization And Plan Development Infrastructure EBA Plan PEL Draft ETO Social
Economic Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP EBO MDMP Holistic thinking Military thinking Integration of national power actions Service providers to the government Effects Targets and Critical Vulnerabilities
Decisive Effect Centres of Gravity / Decisive Point Second and Third Order Effects First and Second order Enabling Effect Supporting Tasks / Implied Tasks End State End State Dynamic Situation Static Situation Need for persistent situation awareness Initial situation assessment (not reconsidered dynamically) EBP OPP Operational Network Assessment (has been changed to Knowledge based assessment) IPB Decentralised Decision Making Centralised Decision Making
Constant Engagement Constant Engagement Feed-back loops System System of Systems Loose feed-back loops Defence R&D Canada Valcartier System R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier System of Systems Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP EBO is a very powerful paradigm or concepts that push the leadership to embrace a more comprehensive and holistic thinking. EBO require to think about actions and their secondary effects. EBO lead decision makers to think not only about winning the war, but also how to win the peace. MDMP as a very focused and oriented process, consider only planning for military actions.
The holistic thinking is appropriate for strategic change management. But, what about operational and tactical levels? How to apply the DIME concepts at the tactical level? Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP EBO strength might be seen in its recognition of the dynamic situation analysis and the system of systems approach to it. Leaders and their supporting staff should be able to monitor such system of systems dynamics, understand its fundamental rules and derive where to create an decisive effect to change it to a desired end state. MDMP is based on static reading of the situation. Iterations and refinement of plans lead to reviewing the situation from time to time. How to perform continuous situation assessment if the information is continuously changing? What is the balance between dynamic analysis and static? What is the influence of information overload on the quality of the analysis? Is it better to make some abstraction and focus on the fundamental aspects rather than continuously monitor the change? Defence R&D Canada Valcartier
R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP Assessing effects and actions is another good concept of EBO. Understanding the cascading effects and their relationships is very complex undertaking. It is sometimes impossible to list all possible effects. MDMP focus only on assessing military actions on targets, which is more focused assessment process. Theoretically, decision-making is better served by a holistic and coherent assessment process, practically however, it is unfeasible. Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP EBP is continuous planning process that never stops until the desired end-state is achieved. MDMP stops as soon as the final plan is approved and the orders are issued.
Amendment and new tasking could be issued as a reaction to execution, but tactical Commanders are given a good room of manoeuvre to adapt to situation. Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP EBO require that all constituents of national power should be integrated and adopt and EBA thinking in order to achieve strategic aim and manage change. Theoretically, such integration is a must. But, to which level should such integration goes. How to enable such integration while observing national constitutions and lows? How to accommodate dynamic, continuous and agile decision-making within bureaucratic, political and sometimes polarized environments? MDMP recognise coordination with other agencies and national power constituents. MDMP assume that more integration should happen at a higher level like the government or some special bodies. Defence R&D Canada Valcartier
R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP EBO to work require a high level of collaboration. Such collaboration is very broad according to EBO. MDMP recognise collaboration, but at a very limited scale. Advances in technology have triggered integration of collaborative planning tools within headquarters. MDMP is now more distributed and collaborative process. Flexibility is requirement for both EBO and MDMP. Effects and Actions Assessment might become very complex and heavy process. Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Lessons Learned MN LOE I concluded that collaborative planning can be conducted in a distributed environment.
MNE 3 showed that the EBP concept has potential for operational and joint task force headquarters but requires further refinement. While participants found the process complex, they praised the concept for forcing them to think in terms of effects, which expanded their options. MNE3 found that the staff should be organized and trained to support the requirements of the EBP process. An integrated suite of tools is required to support distributed collaborative planning and the EBP process. Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Implications The main point is that the EBP and EBO concepts are still being developed. Therefore, the opportunity exists to harmonize the MDMP within the EBA. Future experimentation could investigate the effectiveness of distributed planning with higher-level headquarters
conducting EBP while subordinate headquarters conduct MDMP. The MDMP could be modified recognizing an EBP process. The MNE 3 lessons call for an integrated suite of tools. Developing such a tool suite to support both processes and facilitate distributed collaborative planning amongst all of the headquarters involved should be considered. Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Implications The MDMP should be closely coupled to the Commanders Intent and driven by his critical information requirements. Information and intelligence production should be cued to the Commanders desired effects and the MDMP should be adapted to integrate dynamic information and intelligence management and dynamic situation analysis, to develop trust among all levels of decision-making, to contribute to a shared knowledge base (ONA database), and create a collaborative decision-making environment. These are important issues for harmonizing the MDMP with the EBP process.
Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Implications The other key challenge will be to adapt leadership skills for a distributed coalition collaborative environment. As found in MNE 3, different skills are required from the traditional command and control environment. Training, Teaching and Skill Sets. The MDMP should be reviewed and adapted based upon EBA concepts. The EBA and the MDMP should benefit from a broad range of tools as well as supporting concepts Network Centric Warfare, disciplines like the decision sciences, and theories like complexity theory, graph theories, and chaos theory as well as social theories Defence R&D Canada Valcartier
R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Implications Property MOEs and MOPs (Metrics or Criteria) Fundamental Properties: Accepted 24% Efficient 22% 16% Feasible Without Redundancy Comprehensive Measurable 14% Complete 10% Justice 6%
Exhaustive 4% Consistent 2% Measurable % of Response MOEs and MOPs (Metrics or Criteria) Desired Properties Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Concluding remarks MDMP and EBO are not competing concepts It is clear that the EBA/EBO is still a paradigm in development. In our opinion, the EBA and the MDMP should not be seen as competing or contradictory concepts.
EBO is not a new operational concept, it is a way of thinking or paradigm Teach military decision-makers to integrate a holistic thinking in their way of dealing with complex problems Develop and maintain a collaborative culture with other national and international powers Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Concluding remarks Power to the edge: Decentralisation versus centralisation Sharing situation awareness Shared intent Trust in both direction Agility and adaptability Accountability: Fault tolerance C2 Structure and Organisation Operational Design and the Assessment are the Achilles heel of EBO Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier Concluding remarks
MDMP has become a staff centric process rather than a Command centric MDMP supposes a static situation while EBO recognizes that environment is dynamic Need to better integrate dynamic information and intelligence management to the OPP like persistent surveillance and dynamic situation analysis Requirement to better integrate OPP and IPB: Intelligence and Information production should be cued toward achieving the desired effects MDMP should be seen as problem solving process that could be modernised by teaching a holistic analytical thinking: Critical thinking Emerging tools and sciences are required like chaos theory Defence R&D Canada Valcartier R & D pour la dfense Canada Valcartier
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