FUTURE CLIMATE OF THE ARCTIC Conference on an Arctic Nuclear ...

FUTURE CLIMATE OF THE ARCTIC Conference on an Arctic Nuclear ...

Arctic Nuclear Weapon Free Zone: proposing Canadas role in this novel variation Canadas Contribution to Global Security July 23-26, 2017, Dalhousie University, Halifax and Pugwash, Nova Scotia Adele Buckley, Canadian Pugwash 1 Arctic ice is melting > global climate is affected--> geopolitical repercussions (e.g environmental refugees) [New!] Warm Atlantic waters mixing; assault on Arctic ice from below Fresh water from Siberian rivers and Greenland ice melt is changing ocean currents & promoting mixing

2 Key Factors -Sustaining Peace in the Arctic Environmental adaptation Human security Co-operative governance Beneficial resource exploitation Retain demilitarized status Arctic to be off-limits to nuclear weapons

Begin now -Arctic policy of circumpolar states must have the goal to be nuclear-weaponfree. Inactivity on this carries significant risk 3 Canadas potential contribution to sustaining Canada is a NATO member, and is a nuclearpeace in the Arctic weapon-dependent country, AND Canada opted-out of negotiations for the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons BUT, Canada has always taken the position that

NATO should stay out of the Arctic Canada already complies with UN conditions for a nuclear-weapon-free zone, and so. Canada, a stated proponent of nuclear disarmament, is in a position to lead negotiations for a nuclear-weapon-free Arctic 4 The new Arctic

Navigation routes open in summer Arctic seas; commercial shipping will begin; there are new opportunities for tourism The Arctic is a new frontier for resource exploration &development oil, gas, minerals, Commercial fishing will be common Massive adaptation will be needed Arctic peoples want to participate in national and international discussions that affect their lives [improvement needed!] Non-Arctic nations insist on a voice All Arctic nations are increasing their military presence 5 CO-OPERATIVE GOVERNANCE 6

Multilateral collaboration EXAMPLES OF INTENT TO COOPERATE TREATY AGREEMENTS Search & Rescue Agreement, 2011 8 circumpolar countries: Arctic has defined search & rescue areas , coordinated multilateral management, retaining legal responsibility of each nation for its own territory Ilulissat Declaration, 2008 five coastal nations agreed to responsible management of the Arctic Ocean and to respect UNCLOS to resolve maritime boundary disputes Persistent Organic Pollutants (POP) Treaty, 2001 Agreement on Cooperation on Marine Oil Pollution, Preparedness and Response in the Arctic, 2013 [weak?] Canada; Denmark; Norway; Russia; United States: Fishing Declaration Covering Central Arctic 07/16/15 Polar Code [International Marine Organization] safety& env. protectn for ships operating in polar waters 01/01/17 7

And. UNCLOS [United Nations Convention on the Law Of the Sea] 8 The Arctic Council and Sustaining Peace in the Arctic Arctic Council, formed 1995, mandate is economic, environmental and cultural; excludes all military and security issues Ideally, the Arctic Council would recognize that security is a facet of all parts of their

mandate & would sponsor discussions on Arctic NWFZ, but... Observers at the Arctic Council include NWS China, India, Britain, France [Russia and United States are members] 9 DEMILITARIZED? Or MILITARIZED? 10 The Arctic is host to patrols of nuclear-weaponequipped submarines, flights of nuclear-weaponequipped bombers, [and ballistic missile launch sites*] Military presence is established for the purpose of maintaining sovereignty and stability. Additional capability:

Regulatory support Search and rescue capability Assistance with environmental emergencies Today: the Arctic region is still considered to be de-militarized A nuclear-weapon-free Arctic: strengthens international peace and security, lessens risks of conflict escalation, could reduce nuclear armaments totals, builds confidence and strengthens legitimacy of total nuclear disarmament

*No land-based ICBMs are currently stationed in the Arctic [E. Regehr, Oct 2014, Simons Foundation] 11 All circumpolar nations are improving their Arctic naval combatcapability; NWS have new nuclear-armed submarines:- Fr. top left, clockwise- USS Connecticut; Russian Strategic Nuclear Force NEW missile submarine Yury Dolgoruky ; NNWS have surface vessels: Norway; Denmark 12 Arctic Council observers operate in the Arctic now or could in the future [from top left] (1) Chinese missile submarines; (2) Chinese icebreaker Xue Long (3)UK Trident submarine (4) Le Triomphant submarine, France 13

A circumpolar region free from Nuclear Weapons a one-of-a No existing kind arrangement Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone includes two Nuclear Weapon States No existing NWFZ encompasses only the partial territory of the nation-states in it The Arctic Ocean is a global commons; freedom from NW requires separate agreement(s) 14 [1] north of Arctic Circle, OR [2]Search & Rescue Agreement 2011 15

THE NUCLEARWEAPON-FREE ZONE 16 Nuclear Weapon Free Zones [Treaty, Ratification by zonal states , Protocols Ratified by all NW states] Antarctica [1959, 1961, all] Tlatelolco [1967, 1969, all] Rarotonga* [1985,1986]

Bangkok* [1995, 1997] Pelindaba* [1996,2009] Semipalatinsk* [2006,2009, 2014] Mongolia, [2000,2000,all] *Consultations with NWS ongoing ALSO Seabed Treaty (1971) Svalbard (Spitzbergen Treaty 1920) Outer Space Treaty 17 COMPARISON [does ProhibitionTreaty mean a NWFZ of 122

states?] Nuclear-Weapon-FreeTreaty on the Prohibition Zone [UNGA 1975] Prohibits manufacture, possession, deployment, delivery systems Non-use of nuclear weapons Arrived at freely by regional states

Verifiable, unlimited duration NWS recognize by ratifying protocols in their legislatures Meeting of the parties scheduled for NPT review conferences of Nuclear Weapons[2017] Prohibits development, testing,

production, manufacture, acquisition, stockpiling Prohibits use or threat to use 122 countries signed Prohibits transfer Other states may not install or deploy nuclear weapons on their territories NWS and nuclear-dependent states do not recognize treaty Humanitarian objectives, e.g. recognizes those affected by NW use or testing 18 Challenges affecting the proposed The challenges (1) two NWS & (2) NATO Arctic NWFZ

Security policies of the NNWS & the NWS Current Russia/West tension has repercussions in the Arctic. Prospects for bilateral talks on nuclear cuts are dim Choice of confidence-building measures Geographic boundaries Regional measures SU-24 Aircraft in the Barents region 19 NATO Issues in the Arctic

Canada always opposes a role for NATO in the Arctic NATO membership a policy obstacle to negotiations toward an Arctic nuclear-weapon-free zone. NATO holds military exercises near to the Arctic NATO assured Moscow that it does not intend to establish in the Arctic [Rasmussen, Nov 2010 & May 2013]. BUT Putin increases Arctic military presence [2013 - 2017] to protect Russias national interests The right to pursue independent policies has been claimed by both NWS and NNWS in NATO* No barrier in international law* Example: Australia, part of a NWFZ, is also in a nuclear alliance

*S. Lothe Eide, IPLI Policy Papers, 2014 Kirov class cruiser 20 Geopolitical and commercial linkage the China Sea & the More icebreakers are being built for circumpolar Arctic Ocean

nations and others. Oil & gas exploration will be present The summer Arctic Ocean will be ice-free before 2030. China & others intend to use the Arctic sea route for commercial shipping. 2016: Snow Dragon undertook its 7th Arctic research expedition; a research base has been established in Iceland Geopolitical tensions, together with Chinas capability to use nuclear-weapon-equipped submarines, result in a probability that these subs will be used in the Arctic INACTIVITY ON THE ARCTIC NWFZ FILE? A result could be that all NW states will deploy their submarines, and the probability of sustaining peace in the Arctic Ocean will be low 21 Reasons for U.S. and Russia to pivot to Asia North to Korea Asia performs military drills as U.S. pushes

diplomacy https://www.thestar.com/news/world /2017/04/25/north-korea-performsmilitary-drills-as-us-pushesdiplomacy.html The U.S. navy announced the USS Michigan, an Ohio-class guided-missile submarine, had arrived in Busan "for a regularly scheduled port visit." (YONHAP / AFP/GETTY IMAGES) By ANNA FIFIELD 22 ADVOCATES FOR AN ARCTIC NUCLEAR-WEAPON-FREE ZONE Some governments

The United Nations The population of the Arctic International institutions Civil society 23 Indigenous Populations of the Arctic Involvement of: United States, Canada, Denmark and Russia

To do: gain important support for an Arctic NWFZ, by encouraging revision and re-issue of the I N U I T C I R C U M P O L A R C O N F E R E NCE [1983] Resolution on a Nuclear Free Zone in the Arctic [and 1998 call to designate the Arctic as a military-free zone] ICC Canada Nancy Karetek-Lindall, ICC Canada President Herbert Nakimayak, Natan Obed ICC Canada Vice Presidents 24 SETTING OUT ON THE PATH TO AN ARCTIC NUCLEAR-WEAPON-FREEZONE 25

Canada could lead the way to Arctic NWFZ Canadas no-show status on the Ban Treaty requires new and positive action to demonstrate its continued support for nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation As a prominent member of the circumpolar nations, Canada is in an ideal position to: Include an aspirational statement on Arctic NWFZ is its Arctic security policy

Host the circumpolar NNWS to begin discussions 26 Partial denuclearization Easing the way into a non-NW Arctic: Arctic non-NWS* form a NWFZ, partial territory , allowing future add-in of the 2 NWS Russia and United States could consider eliminating nuclear armaments from: Air space Surface waters Under-sea waters of the circumpolar nations (per UNCLOS) Any of these actions would be a Confidence Building Measure (CBM) *

*Norway, Denmark (Greenland), Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Canada27 SECURITY POLICY OF THE NNWS & the NWS The circumpolar NNWS need to include an Arctic NWFZ in foreign policy All circumpolar Non Nuclear Weapons States have already fulfilled important criteria for a Nuclear-Weapon-Free-Zone The NWS would have to offer Negative Security Assurances (NSA) - would that be forthcoming if Russia and U.S. joined later?

28 Steps toward NW-free Arctic Special Provisions for Russia & U. S. Russias major submarine base is in the Kola INCREMENTAL MOVES TO ARCTIC FREE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS Peninsula Exclude NWS territorial waters, surface and sub-surface. Submarines could be allowed innocent transit [not patrol]

BUT per UNCLOS, Art. 20, need to surface and show their flag. Could the UN make sub-surface ID a formal addition to the innocent transit definition? NWS Arctic territorial land - could be free of nuclear weapons Russia and United States -could agree to verification of the special provisions Other Nuclear Weapon States would offer Negative Security Assurances [NSA], per agreed land, sea and air provisions For the international Arctic Ocean*: All NWS would sign NSA protocols that undertake not to patrol or station or use nuclear weapons in the Arctic Ocean, or threaten to do so Both NWS should reduce launch readiness of sub-based missiles* *Per Ernie Regehr, October 2014, Simons Foundation 29

30 Connecting: Arctic NWFZ - a support for a universal legal ban Nuclear Weapons Convention (NWC) is an international, onuniversal, Nuclear Weapons legal ban of nuclear weapons*, supported by credible verification. NWC is also effectively achieved by a framework of mutually reinforcing agreements

Arctic NWFZ creates a regional Nuclear Weapons Convention Early formation of the Arctic NWFZ allows smaller scale testing of NW reduction procedures, and dismantling, verification, etc. Arctic NWFZ helps to build co-operative security mechanisms that facilitate a global nuclear-weapon-free regime >>> lessons-learned could be utilized * The Model NWC, 2007, sets 5 year periods; NW abolished by Year 15 31

The end moves toward an Arctic Nuclear-Weapon-Free UN First CommitteeZone gathers support, then UN General Assembly resolution is introduced by Arctic non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS) NNWS form a NWFZ, then approach U.S. and Russia , proposing Arctic NWFZ U.S. and Russia, responding to a period of regional and global pressure, might accept (1) beginning with elimination of patrolling by SSBN class submarines in the Arctic and (2), in time, join the NNWS in the Arctic NWFZ Then, Arctic NWFZ is a tipping point for a nuclear-weapon-free world 32

RECOMMENDATIONS A NWFZ in the Non-Nuclear Weapon States Canada can and must set out an Arctic policy that includes a goal of an Arctic region that is free of nuclear weapons, and it must encourage non-nuclear circumpolar sovereign nations to do the same. A cooperative effort between the circumpolar NNWS will be required. Circumpolar governments

Press the Nordic countries and Canada to open negotiations for a regional Nuclear-Weapon-Free- Zone in their Arctic territory [these countries already fulfil the conditions for a NWFZ] Engage the Standing Committee of Parliamentarians of the Arctic Region; engage individual members of legislatures Recognize the need for unilateral- and multilateral confidence building measures, and propose action on this to the circumpolar states Negotiate a treaty that preserves the non-militarization of the surface of Arctic Ocean Develop concrete proposals that address verification and enforcement of a NWFZ agreement United Nations Sponsor a study on a NWFZ in the Arctic by the United Nations, UNODA or other research arms Cultivate support for a resolution in the United Nations General Assembly; initial proposals to be from one or more states at the annual meeting of the First Committee

Develop a draft framework of an Arctic NWFZ Treaty Nuclear Weapons States (NWS) Reduce the role of NW in the NWS security policies [U.S. and Russia] Involve the non-circumpolar NWS in the discussion, and obtain their support Press the NWS to reduce launch readiness of submarine-based missiles Add ideas and strategies. Send an email to [email protected] Arctic NWFZ discussion group >> SUBSCRIBE ! ([email protected] ) 33 Contact information Canadian Pugwash Arctic Security WG: [email protected] www.pugwashgroup.ca [papers and presentations] Arctic NWFZ discussion group >> SUBSCRIBE ! ([email protected] )

Reports and Papers : see www.arcticnwfz.ca 34 United States in the Arctic Submarine patrols have decreased since the cold war. Has a BMD installation at Ft Greeley; no nuclear

weapons installed north of the Arctic Circle U.S. has one icebreaker in service Concerned members of Congress call for greatly increased resources to support the new Arctic. Jan 2014 U.S. Govt has an Arctic Implementation Plan U.S. has appointed a Special Representative to the Arctic Admiral Robert Papp Jr. Has not ratified UNCLOS; U.S. signed Ilulissat Agreemt which undertakes to be ruled by UNCLOS U.S. Arctic Council Chair 2015-17, then Finland 35 Coast Guard Forum & Regional Security Issues The Arctic Coast Guard Forum - formally established

March 2015 by members of the Arctic Council. Focus is expected to be on soft security issues such as search and rescue, and environment. Forums operating principles, strategic objectives, and rules of governance were agreed The U.S. Coast Guard operates under Homeland Security, and is considered a civilian operation It is hoped that indigenous groups and the private sector might be engaged in the process Russia has reason to make regional alterations to its military capacity, e.g. In its east coast in Asia, to counter the United States pivot to the far east 36 Russia in the Arctic

-perception vs. reality Russian military bases in and around the Arctic Patrols by Russian SSBNs-greatly declined in the last 20 yrs Canada notes constructive cooperation with Russia within the Arctic Council Is the buildup of Russian bases along the vast coastline an aggressive military strategy, or is it a re-build of military infrastructure in the Arctic, an important territory of Russia? Is Russia making a strategic realignment to the Arctic in response to NATO, OR is it just in response to global interest in the Arctic, and economic development plans? OR, maybe Russian intentions* are not coherent?

* M. Fert-Malka, www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2017/03/22/ 37 38 WHAT IF? Russia and the United States negotiate for further reductions in nuclear arms For reduction below New START limits, the goal could be reducing stockpiles of deployed and not-deployed and non-strategic warheads by 50 percent.* The negotiations could include acceptance, in principle,

of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Arctic Part of the 50 percent reduction would have to be on SSBNs; choosing to eliminate patrols of nuclear-missileequipped submarines in the Arctic could be seen as a joint enterprise* with minimal security consequences The negotiations could include fissile materials all aspects that are presently in the Arctic [applies particularly to Arctic lands in Russia] * The War That Must Never Be Fought, 2015 ,Chapter 15 Creating the Conditions for a World without Nuclear Weapons, James Goodby and Steven Pifer, 39 WHAT IF? NATO reduces, or eliminates, the role of Nuclear Weapons in its security policies

The circumpolar NNWS that are also NATO members would have relief from the assumed obligation to accept the nuclear umbrella in all their territories These NNWS would have an increased impetus to put a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone into their official policy on Arctic Security. 40 WHAT IF? There is no move to negotiate for Arctic NWFZ and we have BUSINESS AS USUAL The Arctic becomes another theatre of operations for the militaries of the world; non-militarization of the Arctic Ocean surface is unlikely to be preserved Additional Arctic military bases are established Arctic Council observers [China, Britain, France, India] deploy submarines in the Arctic, some with nuclear missiles

Circumpolar nations, who are also NATO members operate/hold exercises [e.g. more Cold Response] in the Arctic under NATO auspices, increasing tension with Russia Environmental consequences endanger the health of northern peoples and wildlife land and marine 41 SUPPORT FROM GOVERNMENTS Arctic NWFZ

In the Arctic Policy of the Government of Denmark CANADA? Not interested: previous government. Not interested: Trudeau government, but NGOs hope for eventual policy of a NW-free Arctic Nordic Council Member States (NNWS) - lack of support when recently consulted by Denmark Iceland a bill was introduced in parliament to create a nuclear-weapon-free state [not passed] United Nations would assist and support if a regional group indicated intentions re NWFZ 42 UNITED NATIONS ADVOCACY FOR NUCLEAR-WEAPON-FREE ZONES Article VII of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and numerous UN resolutions affirm the right of states to establish NWFZs in their territories Secy-Gen Ban Ki-moons 5-Point Proposal on Nuclear Disarmament(2008):

3. Ensure that disarmament is rooted in legal obligations through universal membership in multilateral treaties, *regional nuclearweapon-free zones, a new treaty on fissile materials, and ratification and entry into force of the comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty. [*emphasis added] The 2010 & 2015 NPT Review Conferences received the Declaration and Recommendations from the Conference of States Parties and Signatories of Treaties that Establish NWFZs and Mongolia 43 ARCTIC COUNCIL POPULATIONS WANT NUCLEAR WEAPON-FREE REGION New research* shows that American and Russian public both favour designating the Arctic as nuclear-free, despite increased fears of militarism in the region Gordon Foundation Survey, 2015 - 10,000 respondents] 44 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

45 Record decreases in Arctic ice lead to. Arctic Ocean Acidification danger to aquatic species& food chain

Permafrost releases locked up minerals to rivers, e.g. Mackenzie River, and enter ocean Global plastic island (gyre) now in Arctic endangering sea mammals River piracy glacier melt caused the Slims River to cease flowing to the Arctic; switched to the watershed leading to the North Pacific Ocean Global particulate matter, on ice, exacerbates absorption of sunlight, and increases warming 46 Environmental Change Coastal flooding, severe storms, uninhabitable communities (contd) Permafrost melt, major infrastructure disruption Boreal forest pond

burning methyl hydrate hydrates on the continental shelf Methane release from sea floor and land could lead to runaway climate change Lakes, ponds, rivers and glaciers shrinking water supply for some northern communities Sea Ice shrinking extent; little multi-year ice remains 47 HUMAN SECURITY

48 Human Security indigenous peoples face serious disruption Food insecurity - widespread Arctic Ocean and land indigenous communities need to use local food supplies from sea and land Health insecurity; housing insecurity .it may be the greatest humanitarian crisis since the end of World War II*. where humanitarian crises happen, so does

political instability.{The Times} Governance - multifaceted management; government funds and resources deficient! Adaptation tools are not available for example: establishing a university in the Canadian north is desirable; other circumpolar countries have universities and colleges 49 Arctic Commercial + or for Oil and gas Peace ? exploration and exploitation Tourism

Environmental danger, cause of international tension Environmental danger Opportunity to promote Arctic interests Infrastructure Facilities will encourage population growth Cost of living could decrease Permafrost problem will worsen 50

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