Drivers of Change National Conservation Training Center ...
Drivers of Change National Conservation Training Center Shepherdstown, WV 10 August 2004 Anthony C. Janetos Vice President
The Heinz Center Drivers of Change Four main drivers to address: Climate change Water quantity and quality Invasive species
Impacts of biotech/bioengineering I will add two more to think about: Land-use change Population pressure So What?
Why should we care? Ethical concerns for conservation and preservation of natural heritage Practical concerns for delivery of ecosystem services: fiber, food, water, soil fertility, atmospheric composition and climate, biological diversity
Both priced and unpriced services Drivers Overall goal: Conserving biodiversity by sustaining ecological functioning What are the main scientific issues for each driver?
What are potential consequences for biodiversity/ecosystem functioning? Personal view for each Climate Change Major challenge over next several decades
Changes in atmosphere welldocumented Changes in ecology beginning to be documented What can we adapt to? Global CO2 Concentration
CO2 concentration (ppm) 360 340 320
300 280 260
800 1000 1200 1400
1600 1800 2000
Storage in Atmosphere: 3.3 0.2 Fossil Fuel Plus Cement Production: 6.3 0.6 Terrestrial Uptake
Inferred Sink: 2.3 1.3 Net Emissions from Tropical Land-Use Change: 1.6 0.8 Ocean Uptake: 2.3 0.8
Decade of the 1990s General Comparisons with IPCC Agriculture more vulnerable in developing world As much as a third of forested ecosystems vulnerable to some degree
Health risks also appear asymmetrical Developing countries appear to be more vulnerable to the same degree of atmospheric change Even developed countries have significant vulnerabilities Challenges Ecosystem response to multiple stresses, climate change
in a broader context Degree to which CO2 fertilization operates Dependencies of impacts on particular CO2 concentrations Costs and effectiveness of adaptation strategies Interaction of domestic and international effects Linkages to other issues, especially losses of biological diversity
Water Quantity and Quality Concerns over water issues differ from region to region Some indication in precipitation data of increase in extreme events Anthropogenic water use not as well understood
as we might like Monitoring for quality not as comprehensive as we need Conflicts between human use and use in/by ecosystems Invasive Species
Already an important management issue within US Annual economic impacts measured in hundreds of $$ billions Now understand that invasives rank second only to habitat loss as driver of extinction trends
Monitoring, prevention, control Biotechnology/Bioengineering Most of the public focus has been on GMO foods But understand relatively little about potential for gene exchange from
released organisms (plants or animals) Focus on what the traits are, not so much how they were produced Land-Use Change Biggest changes over past 40-50 years Acknowledged to be the biggest
contributor to losses of biological diversity What sort of changes can we document over the past few decades? What changes might be in store for US? Main areas of deforestation and forest degradation over the last twenty years (1980-2000) - World
Main areas of degraded land over the last twenty years (1980-2000) - World Main areas of change in cropland extent - World Population Pressure In excess of 6 billion people globally
Projections of population today have two characteristics: Top out around 8-9 billion in next 50 years Stay fairly steady Most growth in developing world, BUT US has shown 2-3% growth per year
Population density in 1995 and most populated and changing cities in 1990-2000 - world Energy in Todays World EJ/year
After the child is delivered (medical bills, hospital bills, formula/diaper cost, etc) A new member of the family. A happy/sad event. Planned/unplanned. Group exercise: Touch zones: Reasons for using a supportive Stance: Communicates Respect. Non-threatening.
When a hurricane reaches land, however, its supply of energy disappears and the storm loses power. Create a Model of a Hurricane! Using glue, blue construction paper, and cotton balls, create a model of a hurricane, labeling and explaining each...
World of Insects Characteristics, Orders, and Collecting ... Called "feelers" Filiform most common shape (segments = size) May be modified FILIFORM Antenna Modifications Wings or No Wings Most adults have 2 pairs Called forewings and hindwings Some insects are wingless...
Swaziland has a generalized HIV epidemic and new infections continue to occur despite major strides in the national response. HIV prevalence among Men having sex with Men (MSM) is 17.7% and high among sex workers at 70.3%.
Amir, age 16 Entered the US at age 15 from a refugee camp in the Sudan Reads below grade level in English Natalia, age 7 Born in the US Reads below grade level in English * Response to Intervention (RTI)...
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